Operation Narco Fluxo: Who will be the first to leave prison?
Market Rules and Details
This market predicts who will be the first to leave the prison system following the arrests in Operation Narco Fluxo (launched on April 15, 2026).
The resolution will be based on the first individual, exclusively among MC Ryan SP, MC Poze do Rodo, and Raphael Sousa, to physically leave the prison facility where they are held in custody. Only the following release scenarios will be considered valid: granting of a habeas corpus, expiration of the temporary detention period without renewal, or conversion to house arrest (with or without an electronic ankle monitor).
Transfers between different prison facilities do not trigger the resolution of this market. Only the exit from a closed regime to freedom or house arrest counts as a release.
Confirmation of the release will be based on reports from reliable news outlets or official documents from the judicial/prison system. If two or more of the mentioned individuals leave prison on the same calendar date (Brasília time) and it is not possible to unequivocally determine who crossed the exit doors first, the market will be resolved as "Yes" for the tied alternatives.
If none of the three individuals are released by the end of December 31, 2026, all alternatives in this market will be resolved as "No".
Market Rules and Details
This market predicts who will be the first to leave the prison system following the arrests in Operation Narco Fluxo (launched on April 15, 2026).
The resolution will be based on the first individual, exclusively among MC Ryan SP, MC Poze do Rodo, and Raphael Sousa, to physically leave the prison facility where they are held in custody. Only the following release scenarios will be considered valid: granting of a habeas corpus, expiration of the temporary detention period without renewal, or conversion to house arrest (with or without an electronic ankle monitor).
Transfers between different prison facilities do not trigger the resolution of this market. Only the exit from a closed regime to freedom or house arrest counts as a release.
Confirmation of the release will be based on reports from reliable news outlets or official documents from the judicial/prison system. If two or more of the mentioned individuals leave prison on the same calendar date (Brasília time) and it is not possible to unequivocally determine who crossed the exit doors first, the market will be resolved as "Yes" for the tied alternatives.
If none of the three individuals are released by the end of December 31, 2026, all alternatives in this market will be resolved as "No".